Will Saakashvili pull a Putin or not? – Damned, he will!Posted: 2012/07/12
One of the argument supporting “Misha will not pull a Putin!” version (e.g. article by Paul Rimple in The Moscow Times – http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/saakashvili-it-seems-will-not-pull-a-putin/461798.html) at least between the words, is that if Misha would follow Putin’s footsteps he would rather choose somebody much softer and puppet-like (e.g. somebody like Medvedev), than as strongman as Merabishvili (called Spine of the State by Misha himself)
Well, let me doubt that argument.
I) Merabishvili’s “promotion” – is it really promotion or deprivation? Merabishvili was indeed the most strong person until recently, when he was a head of nearly 50,000 police forces – Patrol, Security Defense police, Special Operating Department (equivalent of Russian SpecNaz), Constitutional Security Department (equivalent to Russian FSB), Militarized Units of MIA (nearly an army with lots of light armored vehicles, these have been used to attack Mukhrovani Military Base in 2009 when it was said there was a “military coup” planned) – that is indeed huge force, something which nothing can compete in Georgia, even an army, which has passed heavy years under Bacho Akhalaia’s period of “humiliate and suppress” ruling. Besides, Merabishvili controlled through loyal to him Ministers the following Ministries:
1) of Correctional services and Probation (prisons) – extremely powerful agency with puppet Barbie Minister Kalmakhelidze as a head – there are 30,000 prisoners and over 100,000 probationers in Georgia – multiple that on 3 and You will get nearly half million population which depends on mercy of that monster and they are extremely useful before elections, when government may release (temporarily!) prisoners demanding to bring 100 votes among neighbors as a “ransom”.
2) of Education – another powerful ministry which unlike 2006-2008 period no controls each of 3,000 schools in Georgia through appointing or dismissing directors and through them – any teacher which they feel is opposition supporting. That’s why schools became a Vandea against GD these days – the teachers fate depends on their loyalty to the regime, so they try to show up against GD attacking them (see the photo I provided). Besides, MIA collects lots of intimation through schools – who the children’s parents are, their ID numbers are often asked and copied (of course, government knows those ID numbers, but they give you “Big Brother is Watching You!” warning), also it is often that before election class teacher calls parents of future graduates and “advices” them not to misbehave if they would like their child’s marks to be better! Finally – schools are 80% of election precincts points and those teachers will be hired for local election commission staff – they will be UNM’s last soldiers to perform and hide wrongdoings during elections. You have seen a video, when UNM election “coordinator” admitted that she was given a cover job as head of logistics at school, and that is nearly a rule!
3) of Agriculture. Not so sure about this, Previous minister was clearly Misha’s creature. However, this one, Zaza Gorozia – while being a governor of Samegrelo, was fiercely opposed to local Prosecutor – Roland Akhalaia, who is Bacho and Data Akhalaia’s father! Therefore, it is natural that now Gorozia is in opposite Merabishvili’s “camp”
4) Finally, All majoritarian MP’s for UNM have been nurtured and governed by Vano – that was a deal during 2008 elections – Vano formed Majoritarian’s list and Zurab Adeishvili (Justice Minister) – Party List of UNM. Besides, there are rumors that Vano is a middle man between Saakashvili and his satellite party – Christian-Democratic Movement (CDM). Apparently it was Vano Merabisvhili who paid several million dollars for very expensive advertisement campaign for CDM in 2008 Parliamentarian and 2010 local elections, when newly formed party (established in 2008, just before elections!) got sensational “success”.
So, now Vano should feel like Napoleon without loyal to him army and his office at State Chancellery is just a nicer version of island Elba. Not only the “Spine” is left without many of those strings, in addition he was given several such “missions impossible” which would bend and crash even T-Rex’s spine – unemployment (forget about 16% official rate, if correct methodology used, then there is at least 50% unemployment in Georgia, the most shrewd experts say, and it very well may be even over 70%!), agriculture (over 50% of Georgians live in villages but local agriculture provides only 8% of Georgia food market products), Public Health (see the recent report by transparency International, which proves that Saakashvili “reforms” have been disastrous to whole healthcare service and population. http://www.transparency.ge/en/post/general-announcement/transparency-international-georgia-investigates-property-rights-violations), and public trust (currently at a level, something similar which Hitler’s NSPG had in 1945!). Add to the listed, that talking convincingly always has been the weakest Achilles hill for Merabishvili, and that’s why he was so popular while he was acting silently, and that image has been ruined dramatically after only 15 min interview in “Politmeter” talk-show by Nino Zhizhilashvili at Maestro TV. Finally, it was rather bitter joke from Georgia’s puppet speaker of the Parliament – David Bakradze (he was considered to be Merabishvili’s loyal and would never allow such jokes just before Vano was MIA and really the “Spine”), who said: “we do not love and like Merabishvili’s government for their nice eyes and charming speech… in fact, their speech is not that charming after all (laughing)… we like them for what they can do, will do and how they manage to do things!” Well, not so bitter joke by US standards, but let me assure you that for man of Merabishvili’s composition, and in Georgia, such “humor” from a person which he considers a talking puppet, is very hard to be tolerated. But he has to now! I suppose such jokes wouldn’t come to “braveheart” Bakradze’s mind, unless specially suggested by Misha.
Let me state that after becoming a PM, Vano Merabishvili got “Medvedevisized” :))
He’s got a job, which is “a golden cage”. His strength will decrease gradually, although not so dramatically before elections. Misha needs him as nearly the last popular UNM figure to win elections, that would finish his task and his PM-ship as well, I guess.
II) Now let’s go to other signs, which are predictors that Misha Saakashvili dreams 24X7 that he will stay ultimate ruler for Georgia even after 2013 Presidential elections.
- Saakashvili 4-5 times avoided answering straight-forwarded question about his future after 2013. He has done it in front of Hillary Clinton few weeks ago when Reuter’s journalist got as much blurred reply as all others before. Let me ask you – now, after naming Merabishvili as a PM, why not to say that he is leaving politics since 2013 and he trusts PM, whose post will become the most powerful in Georgia since 2013 constitutional changes being activated after presidential elections, to hold the steering wheel and let the country to the same tasks? I am sure Misha will avoid the straightforward answer again, which to me proves that Merabishvili’s term is limited by 2013!
- In the above mentioned interview with Nino Zhizhilashvili the journalist asked repeatedly (3-times I guess) Vano Merabishvili whether his position is for only few months or he sees himself as the most powerful person after 2013 as well. The only answer Merabishvili has mumbled was that the program he presented by endorsement of the party (2.5 pages total, done in less than 24 hours since his PM position was announced, completely copied from Ivanishvili Georgian Dream main vectors, just multiplied by 4 for 4 year term, making digits more impressive:) – is for 4 years, but couldn’t dare to say a word more, which tells me that Saakashvili made crystal clear to Merabishvili that he must refrain from speaking about his plans after 2012 elections! Let me ask you – why would you think that you are good enough to help party to win the most difficult elections in most dramatic time, but then you can’t be good to maintain the ruler’s post after storm is over?
- The same evening in the same Politmeter talk-show, journalist asked one of the influential MP from UNM – Goka (George) Gabashvili whether Merabishvili, trusted the position of PM which becomes the highest position in 2013 will head the UNM party list in elections. Gabashvili didn’t answer that question, but stressed that Merabishvili is the leader of UNM. Surprised journalist asked “- so, now it’s Merabishvili who is the leader of UNM, not Saakashvili?” Confused MP corrected that there are many leaders in their party: Saakashvili, surely is the Leader of UNM, while Merabishvili is now leader of executive power and he also is amongst several leaders.
- Since last October, when Bidzina Ivanishvili contested Saakashvili and UNM, Saakashvili went on One Man Show campaign! Nobody else! He was doing all country trips, opened over 50 new hospitals (well, “Hospitals” sound exaggerated as most of them have only 20 beds but are supposed to replace 100-200 district hospitals in past. Besides, none of them belong to the state), many supermarkets, living blocks for refugees, sport palaces, swimming pools, tunnels, roads, school cafeteria, also donated gifts and given prizes. For legal reasons that was not called “election campaign”, but in fact it was… and it was rather difficult to understand – at least for foreigners – why and how only one man does all advertisement for Parliamentary elections, where he won’t participate at all? The reasons might be two – Misha still believes (and wants others also to believe) that he is the most popular person in UNM; besides, even knowing that he is not, he can’t be 2nd! That’s what is a difference between him and Putin – Putin tolerated to be, at least de-jure, #2 – for 4 years. Saakashvili trusts nobody, as he fears that for any politician, even from his own camp, the easiest way to become very popular would be to unveil all the wrongdoings and criminal acts done by orders of Misha and put him in jail! That is another reason, why I think that for Saakashvili the only way to live in Georgia is tied with precondition to rule Georgia!
- August will be decisive month in many terms – in August government should start to implement “Must Carry” principle and allow opposition channels to be (in there are opposition channels still left for that time despite of hardest press from the government) retranslated to regions by means of either cable or satellite channels. That would certainly increase information access to those living in regions. But most importantly Saakashvili has to announce date of elections (I guess it will be October 5, for making number 5 – UNM’s all time preferred number – being fixed once again in electorate’s subconsciousness. UNM then has to present its candidates and that is very interesting – who will be number one in the list. If Merabishvili is #1, there is greater chance he will maintain prime-minister’s position after constitutional changes being enacted, but if there is somebody else – like Bakradze, Karbelashvili , etc, that means… #1 leader’s seat after constitutional changes is reserved for Saakashvili again!
- Finally, why would Saakashvili change the whole constitution and make President just a decorative figure since 2013 and Prime Minister as powerful, as it is in German, British and other systems, if he is not willing that to be his own seat? Very illogical that Saakashvili would make such significant shift for any other reason but to please himself. Those tasks have been performed by constitutional experts (I would call them “constitutional tailors”) Avtandil Demetrashvili and Tengiz Sharmanashvili 2 years ago. Former got very nice position of Director of Constitutionalism Research and Promotion Center with excellent building in Batumi and 10-members staff with high salaries; the latter – position of Georgian ambassador in Armenia. Interestingly, Mr. Demetrashvili has been recently ordered to come back to Tbilisi for some extra work to be done. I am nearly sure this will have to do with new amendments of poor Georgian constitution. I don’t exclude that Mikheil Saakashvili will resign now, take part in Parliamentary elections and then will become a Speaker of the Parliament – for that moment Demetrashvili and his co-tailors will try to convince the whole world that according to Venice Commission (give me a brake, they only contact Venice commision for propaganda reasons!)recommendations and for strengthening Parliament’s role, the most powerful person in Georgia must be … guess who? – of course – Chairman of the Parliament (which happens to be so famously familiar darling Misha…)
Mikheil Saakashvili is twin-brother of Vladimir Putin – same authoritarian ruling methods, same Goebelsian propaganda machine, same dislike towards free media, same pressure on business and pocket-justice, same love and trust of law enforcement bodies, same Musolini principle – “For friends – everything, for eveybody else – the Law!”. The only difference is that Putin served in KGB and Misha in Border Patrol forces (subordinate to KGB then), Putin was colonel, while Misha was Effreitor, Putin speaks only German, Misha speaks 5 languages, Putin was KGBshnik, Misha was Columbia graduate and Council of Europe stagierre, but when it comes to methodology of getting and maintaining power – they are exactly the same!
III) Regarding methodology some of which are already used and will be farther strengthened with Bacho Akhalaia’s arrival at MIA:
- psychological press on free media journalists, done by either Misha Saakashvili’s propaganda workers (I call them Urnalists) or by Zonderbriggades
- attacks on participants of Georgian Dream meetings in regions – done by ZonderCommandos, Police, Financial (Tax) police, members of local administration families
- Usage of internationally hired propagandists (e.g. Vladimir Socor, Krzysztof Lisek, Vitautas Landsbergis). Using International organizations (NDI, IRI) poll results which are biased by inappropriate (for Georgia environment) methodology and by wrong selection of fields and questions (done by NDI and IRI Georgian counterparts influenced/subordinates to UNM)
- War against satellite dishes very similar to what Iranian state does against free media
- Unjust usage of legislation and financial punishment of anybody connected or mistifically associated with Georgian Dream by National Chamber of Control which is de-facto converted to National Confiscation of Opposition.
- Planning and executing fake terrorist actions against different state entities and commercial structures, especially banks and pro-governmental media, on behalf of the Georgian Dream and preparing fabricated video “evidence”, which will be used against GD leadership and probably arresting them and canceling party’s registration.